The Democratization of Strategic Bombing

Commentary

Feb 18, 2025

Tracers in the night sky as Ukrainian servicemembers fire at drones during a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 8, 2025, photo by Gleb Garanich/Reuters

Tracers in the night sky as Ukrainian servicemembers fire at drones during a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 8, 2025

Photo by Gleb Garanich/Reuters

This commentary was originally published by Foreign Affairs on February 18, 2025.

As the war in Ukraine reaches its third anniversary, it has increasingly become defined by one particular kind of warfare: strategic bombing. Russia has incessantly targeted Ukraine's energy grid and attacked population centers near the frontlines using Iskander missiles and Shahed drones. Ukraine has aimed U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems and a plethora of domestically produced drones at Russian oil depots and weapons manufacturers. Other current and recent conflicts have followed a similar pattern. The Houthis have used an array of one-way attack drones and antiship ballistic missiles to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, and have even sent missiles toward Tel Aviv, well over a thousand miles away. Israel has mostly relied on its manned aircraft to strike back against the Houthis but used its fleet of drones to strike targets in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and is openly debating whether to use more cruise and ballistic missiles in lieu of manned aircraft in the future. Missile and drone strikes have also figured prominently in other conflicts around the world, from the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in 2020, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, to the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region.

Aided by technological advancements in drone and missile production, both state and nonstate actors have amassed strike capabilities that only the strongest states once claimed. Despite the widely differing contexts of these conflicts, belligerents in all of them have used strategic bombing for a similar purpose: to destroy morale and incapacitate an adversary's ability to wage war.…

The remainder of this commentary is available at foreignaffairs.com.

More About This Commentary

Raphael S. Cohen is director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE and director of the National Security Program at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.