The potential emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics. In this report, the authors present the results of a multi-pronged examination of each of these issues, exploring the likelihood and magnitude of their impacts to better inform planning and policymaking.

The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics

Tom LaTourrette, Fabian Villalobos, Elisa Yoshiara, Zohan Hasan Tariq

ResearchPublished Apr 9, 2025

The potential emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics. In this report, the authors present the results of a multi-pronged examination of each of these issues, exploring the likelihood and magnitude of their impacts to better inform planning and policymaking. The goal of their analysis was to evaluate the potential for seabed mining to diversify critical mineral supply chains, the opportunity and appetite for doing so, the factors influencing the viability of a seabed mining industry, and the broader implications of establishing a global seabed mining industry. They used several methods to accomplish these objectives, including a literature review, expert interviews, economic modeling, and an expert workshop.

The authors found that the emergence of a seabed mining industry would introduce a new source of supply for critical minerals that are key elements for energy transition and defense technologies, and this would present several opportunities and challenges for the United States in terms of diversifying critical mineral supply chains away from China, cooperating with allies and partners, working with developing nations, and addressing environmental, regulatory, and security concerns. They offer several recommendations for the U.S. government to address these issues.

Key Findings

  • Seabed mining presents an opportunity for the United States and its allies to diversify critical mineral supply chains, bolstering critical mineral supply reliability and security; however, the U.S. government has yet to develop a clear vision for a potential role of the United States and its allies in an emerging seabed mining industry.
  • A global seabed mining industry could produce amounts of nickel and cobalt—key elements for lithium-ion batteries—that are equal to the projected U.S. demand in 2040.
  • Seabed miners might face fewer barriers to entry into the mining industry than junior terrestrial miners.
  • Production from seabed mining is expected to decrease metal prices, leading to decreases in terrestrial mining royalty revenue for developing nations that would likely exceed royalty-sharing and economic assistance programs from seabed mining.
  • The establishment of a seabed mining industry would have geopolitical implications, including shifts among relationships within the Indo-Pacific region, concerns related to regulatory monitoring and enforcement, new territorial disputes, increasing demand for maritime domain awareness and security, and new influences on commodity prices and security of supply.

Recommendations

  • The U.S. government should establish an interagency working group to develop a unified vision for what the United States’ role in a seabed mining industry would be and work with allies to ensure that all are working toward common goals. The group should then determine whether the vision is consistent with existing programs, policies, and partnerships or whether policy actions specifically targeting seabed mining are needed.
  • The U.S. Department of the Treasury should clarify whether the cost of purchasing polymetallic nodules extracted from international waters is eligible for the tax credits outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • The Bureau of Oceans and Energy Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Geological Survey should accelerate efforts to map seabed mineral resources in U.S. exclusive economic zones.
  • The U.S. government should consider the impacts of seabed mining on developing countries and how to integrate developing countries into the industry while creating economic opportunities beyond seabed mining royalty transfers.
  • The U.S. Department of State should prepare for the start of seabed mining operations with or without U.S. participation by initiating discussions with allies and partners on strategic priorities.
  • The U.S. Department of State should lead efforts on behalf of the administration to impress on Congress the limitations of not ratifying the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
  • The U.S. government should enlist federally funded research and development centers, academia, and industry to study further the potential impacts of seabed mining operations in various areas.

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RAND Style Manual

LaTourrette, Tom, Fabian Villalobos, Elisa Yoshiara, and Zohan Hasan Tariq, The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics, RAND Corporation, RR-A3560-1, 2025. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3560-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

LaTourrette, Tom, Fabian Villalobos, Elisa Yoshiara, and Zohan Hasan Tariq, The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3560-1.html.
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