In response to President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s executive order on the safe, secure, and trustworthy development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), the authors of this report assess the risks posed by AI to generate or exacerbate chemical and biological threats and how such misuse of AI could be mitigated or prevented.

Mitigating Risks at the Intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Chemical and Biological Weapons

David Luckey, Sara Duhachek Muggy, Taylor Frey, David Stebbins, Tracey Rissman, Bianca Espinosa, Daniel Tapia, Greg McKelvey, Jr., Neeti Pokhriyal, Joseph Dawson, et al.

ResearchPublished Jan 28, 2025

As artificial intelligence (AI) permeates into more areas of human activity, its potential benefits and risks have become the subject of increased public and government scrutiny, highlighting the need for stronger governance over the development and use of AI and a clearer sense of the potential threats it could pose. On October 30, 2023, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. issued the first executive order (E.O. 14110) intended to mitigate potential AI risks and threats. Supporting the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's mandated response to the E.O., this report assesses the risks posed by AI to generate or exacerbate chemical and biological threats and how AI's potential misuse could be mitigated or prevented.

The authors examine the expansion of AI and its relationship to existing and future threats to the United States, focusing on AI models that might present chemical and biological threats to the United States, particularly the development and use of chemical or biological weapons (CBW).

Key Findings

As AI technologies advance, they will likely lower the barrier for all actors (including malign actors) across the sophistication spectrum to conceptualize, plan, and conduct CBW attacks

  • Chemical and biological AI tools are inherently dual-use technologies (that is, they can be used for beneficial or nefarious purposes).

Regulation of AI faces significant challenges

  • Roles and responsibilities for addressing chemical and biological threats are spread across multiple executive agencies, creating information-sharing and regulatory challenges.
  • AI-enabled innovation in the chemical and biological sciences is occurring worldwide, enabling industry and scientists to conduct research abroad if domestic regulations overburden and stifle scientific and technological advancements.
  • The revolutionary pace of change in the biotechnology, biomanufacturing, and AI sectors compounds existing regulatory challenges.
  • AI technology governance must be adaptive and iterative to respond to rapid or unpredictable technological advancements.

The U.S. government can pursue multiple approaches to mitigating the use of AI for CBW

  • Existing federal, state, and local laws and policy frameworks for regulating and overseeing chemical and biological risks might provide opportunities to regulate and oversee the use of AI in the chemical and biological sciences.
  • The United States and its allies and partners could use AI models to counter chemical and biological threats by applying the tools to help identify, prevent, and mitigate their impact; integration of AI into CBW prevention, detection, response, and mitigation capabilities could yield important or emergent benefits.

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Document Details

  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2025
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 204
  • Paperback Price: $49.95
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1483-4
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2990-1
  • Document Number: RR-A2990-1

Citation

RAND Style Manual

Luckey, David, Sara Duhachek Muggy, Taylor Frey, David Stebbins, Tracey Rissman, Bianca Espinosa, Daniel Tapia, Greg McKelvey, Jr., Neeti Pokhriyal, Joseph Dawson, Sara Hughes, Morgan Sandler, Rushil Bakhshi, Marta Kepe, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Sarah W. Denton, David DeSmet, Minami Makino, Ella Guest, Sina Beaghley, Suzanne Genc, Michael Miller, Skye A. Miner, Barbara Del Castello, Forrest W. Crawford, Ying-Chiang Jeffrey Lee, Clay Strickland, Sunny D. Bhatt, John Vahedi, Lydia Grek, Vanya Barrer, Ramiro Insuasti, Jr., Jack Lashendock, Derek Roberts, Aleksandr Esparza Hartunian, Shannon Walsh, Will Shumate, Elliott Brennan, Tyler Liggett, Kara Jia, Ajay K. Kochhar, James Smith, and James Ryseff, Mitigating Risks at the Intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Chemical and Biological Weapons, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, RR-A2990-1, 2025. As of April 8, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2990-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Luckey, David, Sara Duhachek Muggy, Taylor Frey, David Stebbins, Tracey Rissman, Bianca Espinosa, Daniel Tapia, Greg McKelvey, Jr., Neeti Pokhriyal, Joseph Dawson, Sara Hughes, Morgan Sandler, Rushil Bakhshi, Marta Kepe, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Sarah W. Denton, David DeSmet, Minami Makino, Ella Guest, Sina Beaghley, Suzanne Genc, Michael Miller, Skye A. Miner, Barbara Del Castello, Forrest W. Crawford, Ying-Chiang Jeffrey Lee, Clay Strickland, Sunny D. Bhatt, John Vahedi, Lydia Grek, Vanya Barrer, Ramiro Insuasti, Jr., Jack Lashendock, Derek Roberts, Aleksandr Esparza Hartunian, Shannon Walsh, Will Shumate, Elliott Brennan, Tyler Liggett, Kara Jia, Ajay K. Kochhar, James Smith, and James Ryseff, Mitigating Risks at the Intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Chemical and Biological Weapons. Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2990-1.html. Also available in print form.
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This research was sponsored by the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and conducted in the Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division (HSRD).

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