Putin's Drone Strategy Shows the Cracks in Russia's War Machine

Commentary

Oct 23, 2024

A Russian drone that crashed in Sumy region of Ukraine., July 26, 2024, <a href=https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/10/photo</a> by National Police of Ukraine/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.uk">CC BY 4.0</a>"/>

A Russian drone that crashed in Sumy region of Ukraine., July 26, 2024

Photo by National Police of Ukraine/CC BY 4.0

This commentary was originally published by Kyiv Independent on October 23, 2024.

Russia shot down one of its own drones—a large and stealthy S-70—after it flew uncontrolled into Ukrainian territory in early October, sparking speculation about how Moscow lost control of this valuable asset so publicly. It's an unforced error that will be keenly felt in Moscow, whose high ambitions for producing its own drones have been slow to take flight.

Given shortfalls in manpower, munitions, artillery, and aircraft, Russia has signaled its belief that uncrewed systems could be transformative in an attritional war, listing drone production among the Kremlin's priority projects. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also announced plans to increase drone production tenfold in 2024, aiming to manufacture 1.4 million this year.…

The remainder of this commentary is available at kyivindependent.com.

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James Black is assistant director of the Defence and Security research group at RAND Europe. John Kennedy is a research leader at RAND Europe. Rebecca Lucas is a senior analyst at RAND Europe.